Reasons why the 2020 presidential election is deeply puzzling
To say out-loud that you find the results of the 2020 presidential election odd is to invite derision. You must be a crank or a conspiracy theorist. Mark me down as a crank, then.
I am a pollster and I find this election to be deeply puzzling. I also think that the Trump campaign is still well within its rights to contest the tabulations. Something very strange happened in America’s democracy in the early hours of Wednesday November 4 and the days that followed. It’s reasonable for a lot of Americans to want to find out exactly what.
First, consider some facts.
President Trump received more votes than any previous incumbent seeking reelection. He got 11 million more votes than in 2016, the third largest rise in support ever for an incumbent. By way of comparison, President Obama was comfortably reelected in 2012 with 3.5 million fewer votes than he received in 2008.
Trump’s vote increased so much because, according to exit polls, he performed far better with many key demographic groups. Ninety-five percent of Republicans voted for him. He did extraordinarily well with rural male working-class whites.
He earned the highest share of all minority votes for a Republican since 1960. Trump grew his support among black voters by 50 percent over 2016. Nationally, Joe Biden’s black support fell well below 90 percent, the level below which Democratic presidential candidates usually lose.
Trump increased his share of the national Hispanic vote to 35 percent. With 60 percent or less of the national Hispanic vote, it is arithmetically impossible for a Democratic presidential candidate to win Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. Bellwether states swung further in Trump’s direction than in 2016. Florida, Ohio and Iowa each defied America’s media polls with huge wins for Trump. Since 1852, only Richard Nixon has lost the electoral college after winning this trio, and that 1960 defeat to John F. Kennedy is still the subject of great suspicion.
Midwestern states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin always swing in the same direction as Ohio and Iowa, their regional peers. Ohio likewise swings with Florida. Current tallies show that, outside of a few cities, the Rust Belt swung in Trump’s direction. Yet, Biden leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin because of an apparent avalanche of black votes in Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. Biden’s ‘winning’ margin was derived almost entirely from such voters in these cities, as coincidentally his black vote spiked only in exactly the locations necessary to secure victory. He did not receive comparable levels of support among comparable demographic groups in comparable states, which is highly unusual for the presidential victor.
We are told that Biden won more votes nationally than any presidential candidate in history. But he won a record low of 17 percent of counties; he only won 524 counties, as opposed to the 873 counties Obama won in 2008. Yet, Biden somehow outdid Obama in total votes.
Victorious presidential candidates, especially challengers, usually have down-ballot coattails; Biden did not.
The Republicans held the Senate and enjoyed a ‘red wave’ in the House, where they gained a large number of seats while winning all 27 toss-up contests. Trump’s party did not lose a single state legislature and actually made gains at the state level.
Another anomaly is found in the comparison between the polls and non-polling metrics. The latter include: party registrations trends; the candidates’ respective primary votes; candidate enthusiasm; social media followings; broadcast and digital media ratings; online searches; the number of (especially small) donors; and the number of individuals betting on each candidate.
Despite poor recent performances, media and academic polls have an impressive 80 percent record predicting the winner during the modern era. But, when the polls err, non-polling metrics do not; the latter have a 100 percent record. Every non-polling metric forecast Trump’s reelection. For Trump to lose this election, the mainstream polls needed to be correct, which they were not. Furthermore, for Trump to lose, not only did one or more of these metrics have to be wrong for the first time ever, but every single one had to be wrong, and at the very same time; not an impossible outcome, but extremely unlikely nonetheless.
Atypical voting patterns married with misses by polling and non-polling metrics should give observers pause for thought. Adding to the mystery is a cascade of information about the bizarre manner in which so many ballots were accumulated and counted.
The following peculiarities also lack compelling explanations:
1. Late on election night, with Trump comfortably ahead, many swing states stopped counting ballots. In most cases, observers were removed from the counting facilities. Counting generally continued without the observers
2. Statistically abnormal vote counts were the new normal when counting resumed. They were unusually large in size (hundreds of thousands) and had an unusually high (90 percent and above) Biden-to-Trump ratio
3. Late arriving ballots were counted. In Pennsylvania, 23,000 absentee ballots have impossible postal return dates and another 86,000 have such extraordinary return dates they raise serious questions
4. The failure to match signatures on mail-in ballots. The destruction of mail in ballot envelopes, which must contain signatures
5. Historically low absentee ballot rejection rates despite the massive expansion of mail voting. Such is Biden’s narrow margin that, as political analyst Robert Barnes observes, ‘If the states simply imposed the same absentee ballot rejection rate as recent cycles, then Trump wins the election’
6. Missing votes. In Delaware County, Pennsylvania, 50,000 votes held on 47 USB cards are missing
7. Non-resident voters. Matt Braynard’s Voter Integrity Project estimates that 20,312 people who no longer met residency requirements cast ballots in Georgia. Biden’s margin is 12,670 votes
8. Serious ‘chain of custody’ breakdowns. Invalid residential addresses. Record numbers of dead people voting. Ballots in pristine condition without creases, that is, they had not been mailed in envelopes as required by law
9. Statistical anomalies. In Georgia, Biden overtook Trump with 89 percent of the votes counted. For the next 53 batches of votes counted, Biden led Trump by the same exact 50.05 to 49.95 percent margin in every single batch. It is particularly perplexing that all statistical anomalies and tabulation abnormalities were in Biden’s favor. Whether the cause was simple human error or nefarious activity, or a combination, clearly something peculiar happened.
If you think that only weirdos have legitimate concerns about these findings and claims, maybe the weirdness lies in you.
The following article, First Air Shipments of Coronavirus Vaccine Approved, To be Delivered Next Week, was first published on Big League Politics.
The vaccine is almost here.
Continue reading: First Air Shipments of Coronavirus Vaccine Approved, To be Delivered Next Week ...
The following article, Sinaloa Cartel Suspects Arrested at Border for Carrying $3.5 Million in Cash and Massive Amounts of Cocaine and Fentanyl, was first published on Big League Politics.
Drug Cartels Will Have a Field Day During a Biden Administration
There are our betters who ignore the COVID rules and then there are the rest of us.
We’re the people like the Georgia shopper in the tweet below who got hassled at Costco because his son wasn’t wearing a mask. To be clear, the Costco member was wearing a mask but grew upset when store management threatened to toss him out over his kid. The next thing you know, two unmasked police officers were handcuffing the masked father and taking him into custody.
Yeah, we’re that guy.
This man wearing a mask is being arrested by cops not wearing masks because his son wasn’t wearing a mask in Costco.🤦🏻♀️pic.twitter.com/nsDK3gd1ty— No One 🇺🇸 (@tweettruth2me) November 24, 2020
Two standards, no waiting. Unless it’s for toilet paper, Postmates deliveries, or for schools to finally open.
Democrats publicly applaud mask mandates (U.S. Senate Democrats), losses of freedom (Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Chris Cuomo), and cutting off power to your house for having a party (Eric Garcetti). They take pleasure in virtue-signaling to the public about wearing masks, distancing, and not commingling for meals, yet don’t actually follow their own advice when they believe the cameras are off.
Stay separated, they say. Don’t sing or “exert” yourself with others! But these scolds give away the game when they do nothing and say nothing about antifa and Black Lives Matter screaming, chanting, rioting, looting, and burning things down.
Rules for thee but not for me.
With this in mind, we begin our list of Ten Hypocrite Democrats Who Prattle on About Masks and Lockdowns But Personally Think They’re BS with:
1. NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio
My message to the Jewish community, and all communities, is this simple: the time for warnings has passed. I have instructed the NYPD to proceed immediately to summons or even arrest those who gather in large groups. This is about stopping this disease and saving lives. Period.— Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) April 29, 2020
The New York City dictator has presided over the hollowing out of the City That Never Sleeps with his onerous, hypocritical rules. He ordered people not to take anything but essential walks, whatever that means, and closed down the gyms to deny his lockdown victims convenient places to stay strong and healthy. He’s closed schools and sports parks. Yet, and you know where this is going, he took walks with his wife and ordered his own gym to let him in. This while he’s used police to stop large gatherings – not of rioters and protesters – of Jewish children and families. He’s done little to curb violent protests. He has encouraged unrest, in fact, by directing protesters to his hand-painted target. He’s stoked riots at which his daughter has been arrested.
In this rogue’s gallery, Bill de Blasio is the absolute worst.
2. California Governor Gavin Newsom
EXCLUSIVE: We've obtained photos of Governor Gavin Newsom at the Napa dinner party he's in hot water over. The photos call into question just how outdoors the dinner was. A witness who took photos tells us his group was so loud, the sliding doors had to be closed. 10pm on @FOXLA pic.twitter.com/gtOVEwa864— Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) November 18, 2020
The dinner party photos above gave away the game for California Governor Mask-Between-Bites.
Stay distant, mask between bites, masks inside and outside, no more than three households at the table, stay six feet apart, eat outside, went Gavin Newsom’s ceaseless Thanksgiving and other coronavirus diktats. He even had rules for your outdoor tents. The governor, who sits by idly while petulant teachers’ union bosses keep kids at home on Zoom classes, has his own children in in-person classes in private school. His own business remains open, despite his closure of other wineries for a time.
His hypocrisies are almost as long as his list of Dolores Umbrage-like Hogwarts ‘decrees.” There’s little to no criticism of his rules and no demand for the underlying science that supposedly supports them. The Santa Anas blow, but Governor Hair Gel demands you wear a mask outside. Reporters, who want to date him, nod their agreement like the bobbleheads they are.
3. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
San Francisco’s hair salons were closed, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi got herself a private, black-market blow-out in San Francisco and it was all done without a mask. Later, the stiletto-wearing octogenarian blamed the salon owner for setting her up
The Democrat House Leader, who went to Chinatown to record a video urging everyone to come on down when the Wuhan virus was taking hold, now has professionally handmade and coordinated face masks for her designer suits. And you should too.
4. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot
Chicago Mayor @LoriLightfoot defends celebrating with a large crowd when the media called the race for Biden despite her own rules about mass gatherings:— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) November 13, 2020
“That crowd was gathered whether I was there or not.”
The Beetlejuice doppelgänger pulled a Pelosi and got her hair done during her imposed salon shutdown because, she sniffed, she’s too important to look bad. She is so important, as a matter of fact, that she symbolically repealed her own ban on large gatherings to go to a Joe Biden rally, which, it is widely believed, dwarfed any gathering he had during his actual basement campaign.
5. CNN Host Chris Cuomo
Coronavirus-spreader Chris Cuomo got a lecture for breaking quarantine, and he's upset about it https://t.co/veoG6XTOHt— Peter Palumbo (@PeterPalumbo1) November 26, 2020
It’s likely that most of what you know about Governor Andrew Cuomo’s kid brother, Fredo, is what you see on Fox News. Chris Cuomo is the whole hypocritical package. Like many New Yorkers, he got coronavirus. CNN made a literal show of his quarantine. Cuomo hosted his program from the basement of his estate and held forth with withering criticism of people who didn’t quarantine, wear masks or conduct their lives to his exacting standards. Then we found out that in his off time, he was out looking for houses with his wife. And at his other abode in Manhattan, he wasn’t wearing a mask.
This Cuomo doesn’t hand down diktats like his brother, Governor Nipple Ring, but picks targets, such as people who act as he does, on live TV giving his viewers the green light to go after them.
6. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
Articles of impeachment filed against Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer | Just The News https://t.co/3Meh5gWqqJ— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) November 20, 2020
The Michigan governor has been so dictatorial in her response to coronavirus that an impeachment effort has been launched against her. Her diktats included banning the sale of garden seeds and ordering people not to get in their boats and escape to their second homes, which is exactly what her husband understandably tried to do to escape his dictator-wife’s rules. Whitmer brushed off her husband’s planned Memorial Day escape in their boat as him simply joking around. No one was amused.
7. Oregon Governor Kate Brown
Making sacrifices today is hard, but it will help ensure no one is missing at the dinner table next year. As we remember all we are grateful for in this year of grim milestones, please take a moment for the 882 Oregon families who have lost someone during this pandemic. https://t.co/HtH6bTNDqs— Governor Kate Brown (@OregonGovBrown) November 26, 2020
Oregon’s machine politician has at one point of the coronavirus shutdown pulled every political lever to keep the state locked down. She’s closed struggling stores, sicced the cops on Thanksgiving revelers, closed every house of worship, and called every Trump supporter racist and a white supremacist (no, it doesn’t matter if you’re a person of color, you’re a white supremacist). And at the same time she dictated there be no large gatherings for the law-abiding, she not only failed to even attempt to stop weeks-long widespread rioting by her antifa and Black Lives Matter allies in Portland, but filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration to try to stop the president from doing it. She is the poster child of hypocrisy.
For her Thanksgiving messages, she urged people to “uninvite” loved ones and on Thanksgiving Day posted a list of elderly people who died with coronavirus.
8. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo
Gov. Andrew Cuomo hugged Georgia mayor — and didn't wear a mask. Now he won't self-quarantine. https://t.co/p9OnNjNDER— TheBlaze (@theblaze) July 28, 2020
Behold Governor Andrew Cuomo. Though he’s not the biggest hypocrite in the bunch, he is the most rewarded hypocrite in the bunch. The New York governor is the author of a book about his noble and near-single-handed crusade to close schools and put grannies in coronavirus-infected nursing homes. Fortunately for him, Cuomo’s self-adulating COVID news conferences, featuring his unhinged rants and crazed bravado, have been noticed by the International Emmy awards people, who rewarded Governor Nipple Ring with one of the ersatz metal statues.
9. D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser
D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser defends attending Biden-Harris party in Delaware as 'essential travel' https://t.co/nq9giea0qf— The Washington Times (@WashTimes) November 10, 2020
Where to start. The woman who holds news conferences in a mask so you can barely understand what she’s saying has undertaken coronavirus diktats with the seriousness of an East German guard. She lets her pet protesters and rioters loot, terrorize, intimidate and burn things down. She recently broke her own rules and took a trip to Delaware for a Joe Biden rally. The woman who wants to put Bobby Beltway in quarantine for going to Grandma’s called her trip “essential.” But yours isn’t.
10. Tie Governor Ralph Northam, Denver Mayor Michael Hancock
Governor Sheets Blackface issued forth a directive to the masses to wear their masks and then “forgot to bring” his to the Virginia coast. He did selfies with constituents without a mask. Of all the people to forget a mask, it was the man who notoriously donned one in medical school photos and dressed in blackface.
And 30 minutes before he boarded a plane to see his family for Thanksgiving, Mayor Michael Hancock urged Denver residents not to travel because, you know, COVID and stuff.
Denver Mayor Said ‘Avoid Travel’ 30 Minutes Before He Boarded Plane To Visit Family https://t.co/Lleq43DE62— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) November 25, 2020
Hypocrisy is what’s for dinner this Thanksgiving. Eat up, there’s plenty to go around.
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Victoria Taft is the host of “The Adult in the Room Podcast With Victoria Taft” where you can hear her series on “Antifa Versus Mike Strickland.” Find it here. Follow her on Facebook, Twitter, Parler, MeWe, Minds @VictoriaTaft
A Biden administration means two dramatic and dangerous reversals on Trump policies that will endanger the American public: 1. Termination of President Trump's signature 2016 campaign issue -- The Wall; and 2. Loosening of immigration restrictions.
"There will not be another foot of wall constructed on my administration, No. 1," Biden told National Public Radio earlier this year.
"I'm going to make sure that we have border protection, but it's going to be based on making sure that we use high-tech capacity to deal with it."
Biden is not really promising any border protection at all. It sounds good, but it is a hollow falsehood. Most of the American public does not know about or has forgotten the $30 billion dollar disaster known as "SBInet." We have been down this "high-tech virtual wall" road before. The only winners were defense contractors. The virtual wall does nothing to deter or prevent unlawful entry across the border. It merely provides surveillance and recording of the illegal activity. Thousands of hours of video recordings of such crossings are available on the internet right now. Technology contractors are encouraged that a Biden administration would like to continue watching and recording millions of people entering the country illegally.
The Americans paying the very high price for Biden/Harris reckless open borders policy are in border communities. Biden's reversals spell doom for overloaded (and closed) hospitals, schools, public housing, and courts. Remember: Biden (and the rest of the Democratic presidential field) promised free healthcare to all illegal aliens.
Biden will reverse Trump policies and rules governing legal immigration. He will -- no doubt -- cancel Trump's so-called "Muslim ban" that barred immigrants from certain countries and curtailed legal immigration, including restrictions on asylum claims.
Biden has a long public record, so you will not be surprised to learn that a few years ago he was proudly in favor of building 700 miles of border fence. Biden had a border hawk position back on November 27, 2006 at a Q&A with a Columbia, SC Rotary Club meeting. Notably, Biden has faced criticism for his past track record on immigration issues. Obama/Biden deported 3 million illegal aliens. The Trump administration deported fewer than 1 million over the last 3+ years.
Court battles will continue, of course. Some Trump administration initiatives are still working their way through the judicial process. Biden has committed to restoring the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which gives deportation relief and work permits to those brought illegally to the U.S. as children. Please remember, many of those "children" are now in their early 30s. The Trump administration tried to end the program, but that effort was blocked by the Supreme Court.
Biden has also glommed onto the "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" mantra, and vowed to initiate a complete system overhaul not accomplished since Reagan's well-intentioned error of 1986. While making that pledge, Biden disavowed workplace enforcement raids and sees no reason why illegal aliens cannot immediately begin receiving public assistance from taxpaying Americans.
Setting aside big national policy considerations, let us focus again on the border communities and the Americans directly at risk. Almost seven years into a Judicial Watch investigation dealing with Mexican Cartel penetration of federal, state and municipal law enforcement organizations in the El Paso, Texas region, we uncovered facts that resulted in the Department of Justice Inspector General taking direct action. Corrupt law enforcement officials at the federal, state and municipal level were removed. Other corrupt officials were effectively "neutralized" through exposure and pressure, even if they were not publicly acted against criminally or administratively. We also uncovered and exposed an El Paso-based narco-terror ring headed by Al Qaeda's director of operations for North America, Adnan El Shukrijuma (deceased), targeting Chicago landmarks. A 48-minute documentary explaining the plot, "The Sun City Cell," can be found on YouTube.
What are Americans in El Paso, Texas, Nogales, Arizona, and San Diego, California concerned about with respect to Biden administration border security? Over the past two weeks, in emails and phone interviews, border residents provided the following observations:
"Whenever Obama was in there, drug cartels were so bad that it didn't seem like anybody was fighting the drug cartels... the cartels ruled everything. They ran the dope, they trafficked the young girls, and there were so many more killings."
"Trump had more Customs and Border Patrol agents at the border. Cattle crossings from Mexico were checked, inspected and limited. The cartels have used cattle to move dope for years. Now they'll go back to moving cattle and laundering money back through the crossing here [Santa Teresa, NM] with less law enforcement. It will be a serious step backwards."
"What happens when the next 'caravan' from Honduras and Guatemala shows up? Does everyone gain immediate access to the country and get free healthcare, no questions asked? That's what they promised. They show crying women and children on the news, but that is a tiny percentage of the people in the 'caravans' -- they are almost all young men -- but the media lies about that and doesn't show the real story. God, help us!"
U.S. Customs Service Officer Patricia Cramer, president of the Arizona chapter of the National Treasury Employees Union, revealed in an interview that persons crossing into the United States from Mexico are not health-screened in any way. No temperature taken, no cursory visual exam, nothing. The "locked-down border" under President Trump is a lie. Now, imagine the health and safety conditions under a Biden administration. Remember: In "COVID-world," you cannot go to the gym, and you must "social distance" in absurd ways -- but the border is open, and no one is screened.
The (purportedly incoming) Biden administration is promoting a 4 to 6 week national lockdown. The country is in the midst of an "Alice in Wonderland" public health crisis -- and the Biden administration is promoting border security and immigration policies that are completely contradictory to what American citizens are enduring.
Is this what we all have to look forward to over the next four years?
The following article, Arizona Legislature to Hold Public Hearings on Matters of Election Integrity, “Stop the Steal” Rally Being Held Saturday, was first published on Big League Politics.
The hearing will be held on November 30th.
The widely respected Initiative on Global Markets is a research center at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business that's well known for weekly polls "it conducts of its Economics Experts Panel, a panel of 51 leading economists in United States universities."
Last week, they posed several questions about student loan forgiveness. The group of experts seemed to widely agree that paying off student debt is likely a net regressive idea that won't nearly be as fruitful as many on the left claim.
They first asked whether or not paying off student loans would be net regressive. All answers ranged from "Uncertain" to "Strongly Agree" with 0% of respondents answering that they disagreed or strongly disagreed.
David Autor, Ford Professor of Economics at MIT, said: "Alongside my kids' student loans, I'd like the government to pay off my mortgage. If the latter idea shocks you, the first one should too."
Anil Kashyap, Professor of Economics in Chicago, said of the second question: "Depends on the threshold and the limit, but chosen carefully this could be progressive. There are still major fairness issues with this idea."
They were then asked whether or not paying off the loans could be progressive if the government is limited in the amount of debt they issue, and if the payoffs are directed to borrowers below certain income levels. 86% of the group either "Agreed" or "Strongly Agreed" that this type of nuance in distributing the assistance would be progressive.
On the second question, Autor commented: "This could create terrible incentives, both for labor supply and (bad) educational investments. Proceed with great caution."
Finally, the group was asked whether suspending payments on student loans would help the recovery more than helicopter money. 49% of the group disagreed, while 40% said they were uncertain.
Survey participant Ray Fair, Professor, Cowles Foundation, Department of Economics at Yale, said of all of the questions: "It depends on how the government debt will eventually be paid off."
News flash, Ray: it won't be.
The IGM, per its website, "brings together policymakers, financial leaders, and top scholars from Chicago Booth and beyond to examine key issues facing the global economy and international business. By facilitating the exchange of ideas, IGM helps improve financial and economic decision-making around the world."
You can view the survey results in more detail and the list of participants in the poll here.
The following article, Canadian BBQ Restaurant Owner is Arrested on Thanksgiving for Providing Food to the Community, was first published on Big League Politics.
This is the new normal.